Monday, April 15, 2013

"Proof of Jeweled Onyx Panther Duping"

It's only been 7 months since Jim  did his last post using The Undermine Journal graphs as "evidence" for duping, and he's done it again.  First let me start by linking you to my response from his previous claim, well worth the read, one of my favorite posts I've ever written.

"Proof"
Now I will not be playing the role of a Blizzard fanboy and say these items are not being duplicated, I very much think they are.  I just believe that Jim's argument is not compelling, and I know that I definitely would not want him to be my lawyer based on his definition of proof.  All he provides is circumstantial evidence at best, while throwing the word proof around as if it's meaningless.

The Undermine Journal
Jim uses graphs from TUJ to highlight a part of his argument.  Below is the graph of the Jeweled Onyx Panther in question:


His point is that the EU one has some strange fluctuations within a time period.  This is true, the price hovers around 70k during the time in question, and taking the base cost as being at least 18k (price of Orb with discount) times 4, 76k should be the bare minimum that one could theoretically "pay" to craft one taking all other mats to be negligible (we wouldn't, but others do).  The graph does even dip into the 65k zone for a while, so fair enough, decent evidence.  Calling this proof however, does not take into consideration 5 possibilities:

  1. Blingtron 4000 has a chance to drop this, significantly lowering crafting price.
  2. Someone transferring servers could use these to retain some of their gold without transferring a bank.
    • This saves IRL money for gold.
  3. Over saturation and slow sales could lead crafters to panic and try to dump their bad investments.
  4. Seeing dupers sell them for so cheap could make people panic, listing theirs low.
  5. Finally, accounts of people purchasing from dupers say they could not list the items on the AH:
There's much more you can read about the last, and most important point, but if none of these factors existed, there'd be some pretty solid proof for the aforementioned argument, as is though, it's just evidence of a theory, and a shoddy one at that.  Cheap Panthers do not imply duping.

Also if dupers had a method that worked on the EU servers, it would most certainly work on the US servers, and why wouldn't they capitalize to make the most $$$ before the method gets fixed?  "I don't know" was the response, so again evidence vs. proof.

So you like TUJ Graphs?
Here's one, Jade Spirit:


Would anyone like to suggest those US spikes imply a dupe?  The supply doubled in a month though, and it's cheaper than mats on my server! So what?  The graph of Dancing Steel also shows the same "abnormal pattern" in the US as above, but again, we know, this item has not been duped.  Just because we don't understand why certain fluctuations occur, does not mean it's because of duping.

Closing
In closing I'd like to use my point from last time to really drive this home.  The Crimson Deathcharger, a well known duplicated item, in the period of one month, in which Jim claims a "doubling" on only EU servers indicated proof of a dupe, the number on the Auction House went up 900% on the US servers, and over 300% on the EU servers, much more than this "proven" dupe.  

So, in closing:

Are these items being duped? Yes.
Does Jim use the word proof correctly? No.
Is Blizzard denying this like there's no tomorrow? You bet they are!!

Cheers,

Phat Lewts

If you like my blog follow me on twitter, @PhatLewtsGold!!

13 comments:

  1. I'm not sure I understand the negativity directed towards the person providing the evidence provided. I think a graph displaying historical data is a very valid method for determining duping. But regardless of whether you believe his argument is compelling or not, all you have to do is use common sense. When level ones start flooding chat with onyx panthers @ 35k apiece, something fishy is going on. Add to that the mounts cannot be resold due to 'used charges'; I think that pretty much tells you all you need to know.

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  2. Blizz never has, and never will admit to these exploits and techniques existing in their games. Diablo 1 had simple techniques that many people knew. D2 had techniques that only a handful (and I mean 3-5 people) knew.

    WoW is no different, because if you have a working technique, the value of it is calculated in dollars, not gold. Sort of like knowing the recipe to Coke or KFC, or even buying a magic trick. So knowing it exists is going to be contained by both parties, and this is what makes it very difficult for Blizz to be able to control or fix. A needle in a haystack.

    I got my proof long ago, nowadays it's just waiting on them to start appearing.

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  3. They are already on US servers. I saw someone selling one in trade chat for 65k. I chat with him on why so low and he says he needs gold. So I say I will buy it. Now he says I have to wait a bit and he will get it. 10 minutes later still no mount. I log onto another char and chat some more. I don't buy it as it was never produced and seemed like a scam. He has been flogging it on chars that change each day. How many sold I don't know but they are here.

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  4. The problem with using TUJ charts is that the duped mounts can't be posted on the AH. The market being flooded with duped mounts does depress the price but there could be any number or reasons for legit price fluctuations, like people being impatient in selling a slow moving item.

    All the proof you need is that the mounts can't be posted on the AH and that the people selling them in trade for 35k,or any amount significantly below cost, are not listing anything in the AH.

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  5. Well I can tell you theirs a person I know on my server who never leaves org yet sells just the panther mounts and leather working made items. Yet he hasn't left org in almost 9 months. So I don't know how he could be even buying the orbs since I'm not sure they are in org tho I could be wrong. I'm on a us server and I'm pretty sure this person has been duping all kinds of items since he has been willing to post them for 2k when they are worth 20k.

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  6. We can only buy them all for about 25k each and patiently resell at a reasonable price.

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  7. i know these items are getting duped, when lots of lvl1 chars with crypic names come to my server, who can't speak the server language, know only a few english words and sell panthers/deathchargers x10 for 30k each. same with the tcg mounts a few months ago. not every server gets hit, but its obvious what they are doing.

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  8. I totally agree Jim's posts are not proof of dupers, I think only Bliz could prove it one way or another.

    As for you statement it is not happening on US server, sorry there I think you are wrong (well maybe only slightly). Currently on Proudmoore there is something strange happening and I guess other servers as well. There is currently a constant stream of level 1 priests selling high end mounts, inc Jeweled Onyx at between 40-50K in trade. Yes I know they could be bank alts, but in starting gear sitting/standing just out Stormwind in the Valley of Heroes where they can spam trade. after a couple of hours they are gone and another replaces them.

    Now I can't say for certain they are dupers but they are definitely not all "clean".

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    Replies
    1. No they're being duped on both sides, never said they weren't. They're definitely being sold in trade for nothing, so I have no doubts they're being duped.

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    2. I got one for 30k, and the seller wanted to sell 2 more for that price.

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  9. http://www.wowhead.com/item=83092#contained-in-item

    https://theunderminejournal.com/item.php?&item=83092

    A quick peak through TUJ shows a number of orbs have appeared on the AH (selling for as little as 22g on some realms). I'd imagine a number of cheap orbs are getting snatched and flipped, or ending up in these mounts. That's not to say duping doesn't exist, only to say that cheaper mounts could be the result of Blingtron orbs. So, shouldn't be so quick to jump on the dupe band wagon.

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  10. Blizzard isn't fully denying that they're duped. I bought one and petitioned to have it replaced with a legit one so I could auction it, but they refused and admitted that the seller had obtained it via an exploit.

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  11. I recently bought one form someone for 65k and when I tried to post it on the AH got the error "cannot auction an item with used charges." Got a GM to delete and recreate it for me and it works fine now.

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