"Proof of Jeweled Onyx Panther Duping"

It's only been 7 months since Jim  did his last post using The Undermine Journal graphs as "evidence" for duping, and he's done it again.  First let me start by linking you to my response from his previous claim, well worth the read, one of my favorite posts I've ever written.

"Proof"
Now I will not be playing the role of a Blizzard fanboy and say these items are not being duplicated, I very much think they are.  I just believe that Jim's argument is not compelling, and I know that I definitely would not want him to be my lawyer based on his definition of proof.  All he provides is circumstantial evidence at best, while throwing the word proof around as if it's meaningless.

The Undermine Journal
Jim uses graphs from TUJ to highlight a part of his argument.  Below is the graph of the Jeweled Onyx Panther in question:

His point is that the EU one has some strange fluctuations within a time period.  This is true, the price hovers around 70k during the time in question, and taking the base cost as being at least 18k (price of Orb with discount) times 4, 76k should be the bare minimum that one could theoretically "pay" to craft one taking all other mats to be negligible (we wouldn't, but others do).  The graph does even dip into the 65k zone for a while, so fair enough, decent evidence.  Calling this proof however, does not take into consideration 5 possibilities:

1. Blingtron 4000 has a chance to drop this, significantly lowering crafting price.
2. Someone transferring servers could use these to retain some of their gold without transferring a bank.
• This saves IRL money for gold.
3. Over saturation and slow sales could lead crafters to panic and try to dump their bad investments.
4. Seeing dupers sell them for so cheap could make people panic, listing theirs low.
5. Finally, accounts of people purchasing from dupers say they could not list the items on the AH:
• Here's one from Blizzard forums
• Here's another from The Stormspire's TimB

There's much more you can read about the last, and most important point, but if none of these factors existed, there'd be some pretty solid proof for the aforementioned argument, as is though, it's just evidence of a theory, and a shoddy one at that.  Cheap Panthers do not imply duping.

Also if dupers had a method that worked on the EU servers, it would most certainly work on the US servers, and why wouldn't they capitalize to make the most $$$ before the method gets fixed?  "I don't know" was the response, so again evidence vs. proof.

So you like TUJ Graphs?

Here's one, Jade Spirit:

Would anyone like to suggest those US spikes imply a dupe?  The supply doubled in a month though, and it's cheaper than mats on my server! So what?  The graph of Dancing Steel also shows the same "abnormal pattern" in the US as above, but again, we know, this item has not been duped.  Just because we don't understand why certain fluctuations occur, does not mean it's because of duping.

Closing

In closing I'd like to use my point from last time to really drive this home.  The Crimson Deathcharger, a well known duplicated item, in the period of one month, in which Jim claims a "doubling" on only EU servers indicated proof of a dupe, the number on the Auction House went up 900% on the US servers, and over 300% on the EU servers, much more than this "proven" dupe.  

So, in closing:

Are these items being duped? Yes.

Does Jim use the word proof correctly? No.

Is Blizzard denying this like there's no tomorrow? You bet they are!!

Cheers,

Phat Lewts

If you like my blog follow me on twitter, @PhatLewtsGold!!

The Duping Witch-hunt

Recently, Jim from Power Word: Gold came out with an article entitled Robes of Insight Now Being Duplicated?.  Although the number of Robes is rising, as indicated in his blog and via data from The Undermine Journal, I'd like to take a moment to take a critical look at his observations.  No hard feelings, I just strongly disagree with the views expressed.

'The Evidence'
In Jim's article, he notes that the number of Robes of Insight on EU servers have doubled since June, from 105 to 199.  He also notes on US servers the number raised 90% from 130 to 249.  Okay fair enough, this is a very reasonable observation, and it is a fact.  But does it imply duping?  No.  Here's my thought process.  Below is a TUJ graph of Bloodscale Breastplate, another popular transmog item.

Bloodscale Breastplate from TUJ, click picture to enlarge

As you can see, there is a substantial increase from May starting at ~475 and going up to 812 on September 8th.  A relatively high 70.95% increase.  Hmmm.  Let's take a look at another popular transmog chest, from the Saltstone set.

Saltstone Surcote from TUJ, click picture to enlarge

From May to September 8th, the number of these increased from 50 to 121.  For those of you who are good at mental math, you already know that's well over double what it was, an over 140% increase.

My last piece of anecdotal evidence is another great transmog cloth chest piece, Buccaneer's Vest:

Buccaneer's Vest from TUJ, click picture to enlarge

Again from May to Sept. 8th the number on the US AH went from 110 to 214.  I hope you're starting to see the picture I'm trying to paint (94.5% increase).

Conclusions I've Drawn
What I think is happening, which is also more likely than duping, is that the demand for transmog items is decreasing.  This is something most of us have observed and felt in our pockets in WoW.  In economics, when demand decreases, to stay at the same level of sales from before, prices must decrease.  Because of us though, the prices didn't decrease.  We are all stubborn transmog sellers who are set in our ways (TSM is a blessing and a curse).  For all the items listed above as well as Robes of Insight, the number has been increasing, but the price has stayed around the same number.  So what we're seeing here is more likely the result of you and I, the gold making community at large, than dupers.

Further: On the "Ban Wave" Theory
Jim also suggested that the dip in amount of items on the AH after the 28th (bot ban wave) suggests duping:

"In the US servers, in days before Patch 5.0.4 and the possible ban wave, there was a peak of 245 Robes of Insight on the servers on August 25, 2012. After the patch? In the US, Robes auctions had dropped from 245 on August 25, 2012 down to 174 on August 30, 2012 a decrease of just over 40%."
"In the EU the numbers peaked at about 190 Robes on August 25, 2012 and had dropped down to 154 on August 29th, 2012. A decrease of around 23%."
*Emphasis added by me.

Clearly looking at all the above graphs you can see that ALL of these items decreased in number after the 28th (in my 3 examples by 21%, 20%, and 27% respectively). This most likely due to huge down times for the patch, or perhaps people choosing not to play during that time due to laggy servers and server resets.  All in all this doesn't imply duping, even take a look at the least likely to be duped item:

US: Netherweave cloth July 30-Sept 10

Netherweave Cloth went from this 1,083,550 peak on August 26th, to 846,994 low on August 29th.  A 22% decrease.  Most all items on the AH felt the hit of 5.0.4 being released.  Before we go around screaming "He's a duper! He's a duper!" perhaps we should take a look at all the evidence.








What Duping Really Looks Like
The previous armor graphs all show linear growth patterns, whereas something that is actually being duped (Reins of the Crimson Deathcharger) look more like this:

Reins of the Crimson Deathcharger on TUJ, click to enlarge

Quantity available is increasing exponentially, and Prices decreasing steadily.  That's what a supply and demand curve SHOULD look like.
Also note that on this actually duped item that on August 27th there were 870 on the AH, the day of the patch, the 28th, there were still 810 on the AH (a 7% decrease), and the day after the patch there were 940 (a 16% increase) , and it hasn't dropped below that since.  Your honor, I rest my case.

Cheers,

Phat Lewts

If you like my blog follow me on twitter, @PhatLewtsGold!!