In Jim's article, he notes that the number of Robes of Insight on EU servers have doubled since June, from 105 to 199. He also notes on US servers the number raised 90% from 130 to 249. Okay fair enough, this is a very reasonable observation, and it is a fact. But does it imply duping? No. Here's my thought process. Below is a TUJ graph of Bloodscale Breastplate, another popular transmog item.
|Bloodscale Breastplate from TUJ, click picture to enlarge|
As you can see, there is a substantial increase from May starting at ~475 and going up to 812 on September 8th. A relatively high 70.95% increase. Hmmm. Let's take a look at another popular transmog chest, from the Saltstone set.
|Saltstone Surcote from TUJ, click picture to enlarge|
From May to September 8th, the number of these increased from 50 to 121. For those of you who are good at mental math, you already know that's well over double what it was, an over 140% increase.
My last piece of anecdotal evidence is another great transmog cloth chest piece, Buccaneer's Vest:
|Buccaneer's Vest from TUJ, click picture to enlarge|
Again from May to Sept. 8th the number on the US AH went from 110 to 214. I hope you're starting to see the picture I'm trying to paint (94.5% increase).
Conclusions I've Drawn
What I think is happening, which is also more likely than duping, is that the demand for transmog items is decreasing. This is something most of us have observed and felt in our pockets in WoW. In economics, when demand decreases, to stay at the same level of sales from before, prices must decrease. Because of us though, the prices didn't decrease. We are all stubborn transmog sellers who are set in our ways (TSM is a blessing and a curse). For all the items listed above as well as Robes of Insight, the number has been increasing, but the price has stayed around the same number. So what we're seeing here is more likely the result of you and I, the gold making community at large, than dupers.
Further: On the "Ban Wave" Theory
Jim also suggested that the dip in amount of items on the AH after the 28th (bot ban wave) suggests duping:
"In the US servers, in days before Patch 5.0.4 and the possible ban wave, there was a peak of 245 Robes of Insight on the servers on August 25, 2012. After the patch? In the US, Robes auctions had dropped from 245 on August 25, 2012 down to 174 on August 30, 2012 a decrease of just over 40%."
"In the EU the numbers peaked at about 190 Robes on August 25, 2012 and had dropped down to 154 on August 29th, 2012. A decrease of around 23%."
*Emphasis added by me.
Clearly looking at all the above graphs you can see that ALL of these items decreased in number after the 28th (in my 3 examples by 21%, 20%, and 27% respectively). This most likely due to huge down times for the patch, or perhaps people choosing not to play during that time due to laggy servers and server resets. All in all this doesn't imply duping, even take a look at the least likely to be duped item:
|US: Netherweave cloth July 30-Sept 10|
Netherweave Cloth went from this 1,083,550 peak on August 26th, to 846,994 low on August 29th. A 22% decrease. Most all items on the AH felt the hit of 5.0.4 being released. Before we go around screaming "He's a duper! He's a duper!" perhaps we should take a look at all the evidence.
What Duping Really Looks Like
The previous armor graphs all show linear growth patterns, whereas something that is actually being duped (Reins of the Crimson Deathcharger) look more like this:
|Reins of the Crimson Deathcharger on TUJ, click to enlarge|
Quantity available is increasing exponentially, and Prices decreasing steadily. That's what a supply and demand curve SHOULD look like.
Also note that on this actually duped item that on August 27th there were 870 on the AH, the day of the patch, the 28th, there were still 810 on the AH (a 7% decrease), and the day after the patch there were 940 (a 16% increase) , and it hasn't dropped below that since. Your honor, I rest my case.
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