Law of Large Numbers
As a math major in college, this one is easy for me to see, but not necessarily easy for everyone else. The Law of Large Numbers loosely says that the more times you repeat an experiment, the more likely you are to get to the actual average. Let's look at an example. Say on a specific server, about 5% of active level 90s are involved in hardcore raiding. If you pick 5 level 90s at random, odds are none of them are hardcore raiders, say our average is 0%. Now lets say we interviewed 20 total, 2 turned out to be raiders, 10%. Later we have interviewed 100 players total, now having 6%, eventually if we interviewed the entire population of 90s on the server, we'd get that 5%, with each interview, getting relatively closer to the population average.
That's great Phat, but how does this apply to gear flipping? Simple. Say on any given day 1.5% of all transmog gear sells. If you have only 47 pieces, odds are you're not going to sell one on any given day. Now if you keep reposting you may, but one of the largest parts of selling transmog or leveling gear on a regular basis is increasing your stock. It's simple, the more of the field you control, when someone actually decides to make a purchase in that market, the more likely it will be from your stock of goods rather than your competitors. I have over 900 pieces of transmog and leveling gear in my inventory, and there are times I don't sell a thing, and other times when I log on to 20k+ in my mailbox (coincidentally, I just pulled in 24.5k worth of transmog/leveing gear sales while writing this post, an all time high for me!). It's a very variable market, and the only way to hedge against this is by increasing your stock.
The following is my general strategy, I go AFK a lot during transmog/leveling gear reposting, and do other things to not waste my time. I'm sure it's not perfect but it works for me (use windowed fullscreen mode if you want to tab out). This will work for reposting in general as well.
- Collect mail (to repost) while afk (TSM_Mailing), until character starts yelling at me.
- Walk to auctioneer, click TSM Post button, AFK
- Wait for readycheck sound telling me I'm ready to post ( /tsm -> Auctioning Groups/Options -> Options -> Enable Sounds)
- Tab into WoW and use scroll-wheel to post (set this up under /tsm -> Auctioning Groups/Options -> Options -> Macro Help)
- Once I'm done scrolling, start running back to mailbox, click mailbox, click Open All button, then AFK (Auctions will still post while you're in the mailbox window, and mail will start opening once all auctions have been posted)
- Repeat until done.
Hopefully nothing new there, but if you're new to the flipping game, hopefully it has shed some insight on the best way flip gear, while not staring at your character standing in one spot for minutes on end. Also, if you're not using TSM to flip gear, you're wasting so much time, and are putting yourself at a disadvantage. Learn it.
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Can you please elaborate a bit more on step number 2? Afk in Auctioneer makes little sense because you have to click yes button for every auction posted.ReplyDelete
Aaaah I see where the confusion came from. By auctioneer I meant walk to the auctioneer as in the NPC, I fixed the post for clarity, thanks!Delete
When posting transmog gear that have names that end in "of the Falcon/Bear/etc etc" how do you undercut someone that has posted the same looking gear as you but with a different name? Something I wondered about lately, and the reason i never really got serious about the transmog market.ReplyDelete
Great post though. I use the same tactics when relisting with TSM hehe.
Aaaaand finally my comment got accepted :) im quite curious if you have an answer to this?ReplyDelete
Yeah sorry had a backlog on approving comments. Using TSM 2.0 right now so can't verify this, but in the current live version, there should be a checkbox like "Ignore Random Enchants", and that's the one you want.Delete
Much appreciated, thanks! Wonder how I missed that...ReplyDelete