Monday, January 19, 2015

Transmog: Salvage Yards/Updated List

So I've been hearing a lot of talk about how the Savage Yard is going to be a transmog killer. While it will definitely have an effect on prices of some items, I decided to do a bit of a "study" to see how the Savage Yard is effecting transmog prices.

The DATAZ!
I've compared the Historical Market (60 Day Avg) to the Region Market (14 day avg weighted to more recent data), along with some data that I pulled in November 2014. Now I cannot tell exactly when the data was downloaded, but I last edited the original file (was pulling data for another project that never got finished) on November 12th, 2014. Anyway, I've posted the spreadsheet for download and discussion over at The Consortium Forums. The TL;DR is that on average, the percent change in price of Xmog was +3.5%, the overall percent change in respect to every item summed was -6.5%. If you're wondering how these can be different, consider the following:

Item Old Price New Price % Change
Awesome Xmog 2 4 100%
Cool Xmog 3 3 0%
Neat Xmog 5 3 -40%



The average % change is (100% + 0% + -40%)/3 = +20% while the overall % change is zero, because both the new and old prices sum to 10. Both have their flaws when evaluating this market, because no one has an evenly distributed stock, but it's an easy way to look at and analyze it.

The New List
Having said that I don't think the xmog market as a whole is doomed, there are some items that likely due to the salvage yard have fallen off my bottom threshold and must be purged. I created a new list, and I've added a subgroup called Defunct Xmog, which is the group of sub 150g items, just in case you want to try and sell off your stock of them or see what's changed. In all it was 216 items, so pretty substantial. Do not search for/buy these items!!! I guarantee someone will mess that up, but hey reading's for chumps right?

Anyway my new list can be found at this link (as always), and I've created a method of reevaluating this in Microsoft Access and creating a new list, so in the future, I should be able to update this list more easily/frequently. If I don't, get on me!

To import the list if you've already got a previous version, go to your BASE transmog group, and paste the string as normal, MAKING SURE THE Move Already Grouped Items BOX IS CHECKED! Easy peasy.


Cheers,
Phat Lewts

@PhatLewtsGold
  PhatLewtsGold

8 comments:

  1. Did you add items that have become easier to farm? Like some BoE's that are now easily obtainable in firelands, ICC, etc?

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    1. Nothing added just removed based on thresholds, will be a while before I hand pick things out of this list.

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  2. thanks so much went in perfectly!

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  3. Hi Phat - thanks for the update - brilliant as always.

    I have already been moving items into a Badstock list when I was finding too many items at my buy price and not selling any. So before importing your new list, i exported my Badstock group, carried out the import of your list, then imported my Badstock list again - with the Move Already Grouped box ticked.

    This stops anything that's ok on your server but dead on mine from getting back into my buy list by accident. If anyone else has been managing their own stock lists - I'd recomend they do this too. For me it was another 110 items that I'll be avoiding.

    I have a sell Operation for my badstock - I DE anything over a certain number of items, but occasionally something in teh Badstock list does sell - and it will act as a warning should the market pick up. I'm certain that having too much new content is a major part of the depressed mogging market and people will come back to it eventually - just not in the same volumes.

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    1. Hey Bones,

      I'm thinking that most of those items would be in the 150-250 list, as these are based on global prices. I'm considering moving that entire group to defunct as that range may be too volatile to predict future selling profits based on global for ANY server. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    2. its mainly the 150-250 list, with some in the 250 list and the a few in the higher bands as well - but you're right that bottom pareto is looking like wasted effort.

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    3. Jeeze - I think I've taken two fifths on my inventory out. Which to be honest is a relief - the reposting was taking far too long recently.

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  4. Brilliant update. I had moved some of these manually to a "do not buy group." I listed my entire "defunct" inventory last night at about 30% avg (dbmarket, dbglobal), which still puts me at a profit. Some poor chap bought it all up almost instantly. I guess it goes to show that you should put your thinking cap on before buying large quantities of stock in one go.

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