Saturday, April 11, 2015

Initial Reception of the WoW Token

So the WoW Token was released on US realms this Tuesday, and it's been an interesting ride so far.


If you aren't in the know, a WoW Token provides us goblins a way to pay for our WoW subscriptions using our favorite virtual currency - gold. WoW Tokens can be purchased from the auction house and have pricing based on demand and some super secret Blizzard formula.

Initial Reception
WoW Tokens started out at 30k gold. Right after the initial release, the price went up a bit, but fell below 30k and hasn't seen it since. You can personally track the WoW Token price on wowtoken.info, a site created by one of our favorite goblin enablers, Erorus, the creator of The Undermine Journal.

So far the price has been hard to pin down. Blizzard has gone from hourly to quarter-hourly back to hourly adjustments, but consistently, the adjustment in price (supposedly driven by demand has been +/- 1% at each iteration. Below is the graph from wowtoken.info at the time of this post:





















As you can see, the price has been pretty steadily oscillating for a while now. The two minimum since the initial launch have been 20,370g, and 21,445g in that order, and the maximum peak in the middle there was 26,977g. So the max and mins are off by ~5,000g, which is pretty substantial considering that the steps, at 1% are 200-270g each. It seems though, at least from this preliminary data, that the price changes are going to get less and less, if the trend continues. The periods of straight increase and straight decrease are getting shorter thusfar, and if that trend continues we will likely/hopefully see a stable price within a week or two.

When to Buy?
The only other trend that I think is "of note" is that the price seems to go up only when the "Time to Sell" is either under 30 minutes or 30 min - 2 hrs, and the price only seems to go down when the Time to Sell is 2 hrs - 12 hrs. This isn't a definite rule, as there are already exceptions to it, but just a good piece of information when planning on buying Tokens from sellers.

In general do not start to panic when the price goes up and buy at a peak. It looks like the price will settle somewhere in the 20k's, but it's hard to say from this initial data. I suggest waiting it out and seeing how the token performs in the upcoming days. I've already purchased one, up in the beginning when the price was high, because curiosity got the best of me and I wanted to try it out. Try and be mindful of your overall paid price for tokens. I'm personally keeping a spreadsheet of the price I paid for all my tokens so I can calculate an average price paid over time, and know how much I've spent, as TSM does not track this data.

No matter how you look at it, we still have a way to pay for the game with gold. Just keep in mind, when you've got millions of gold to buy tokens with, the difference from 20k to 30k is literally years of game time :-). There's quite an interesting discussion going on on the Token's IPO over at The Consortium.

Cheers,
Phat Lewts

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